{"id":477,"date":"2025-06-30T13:07:47","date_gmt":"2025-06-30T13:07:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/arabtradeunion.org\/?page_id=477"},"modified":"2025-07-19T00:07:35","modified_gmt":"2025-07-19T00:07:35","slug":"just-transition","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/arabtradeunion.org\/ar\/just-transition\/","title":{"rendered":"Just Transition"},"content":{"rendered":"\t\t
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Promoting Inclusive Climate and Digital Transitions in the Arab Region: A Just Transitions Agenda<\/strong><\/h1>

The Arab region stands at a pivotal moment as it navigates two transformative transitions \u2013 the shift to a low-carbon green economy in response to climate change, and the rapid digital transformation reshaping industries and societies. These twin transitions carry enormous promise for sustainable development, but also profound challenges for labor markets, social justice, and economic inclusion. Recognizing the stakes, the Arab Trade Union Confederation (ATUC) established the Arab Center for Just Transition as a dedicated initiative to champion a rights-based, inclusive approach to these transitions. Modeled in spirit after global efforts by the International Trade Union Confederation (ITUC), the Center\u2019s mission is to ensure that climate and digital transformations across Arab economies unfold in a manner that \u201csecures the future and livelihoods of workers and their communities\u201d through social dialogue and fairness<\/p>

\u00a0This UN-style report provides an analytical overview of the Center\u2019s approach and the broader context, aimed at an international organization and trade union audience. Shortly into the 2020s, it became clear that \u201cjust transition is not a slogan \u2013 it\u2019s a framework of rights and responsibilities\u201d, as trade unions globally have asserted. In the Arab region, the concept of a just transition has gained urgency amid surging climate impacts and a post-pandemic digital acceleration. The Arab Center for Just Transition operates as a regional hub, under ATUC\u2019s umbrella, to integrate labor\u2019s voice in climate and digital policies. It supports member unions in understanding and influencing transition strategies, fosters social dialogue among stakeholders, documents best practices, and represents Arab workers in global forums. Crucially, the Center advocates that both the climate and digital transitions must be guided by social justice principles \u2013 meaning they should be inclusive, participatory, and anchored in the protection of workers\u2019 rights. The following sections analyze the convergence of these transitions in Arab economies, their impacts on labor markets, and key policy areas for ensuring no one is left behind.<\/p>

Twin Transitions in the Arab Region: Climate and Digital Convergence<\/strong><\/h2>

Climate Transition: Arab states are increasingly grappling with the need to transition toward sustainable, low-carbon economies. This imperative is partly driven by stark climate realities \u2013 the region is among the most vulnerable to climate change, facing extreme heat, droughts, and resource stress \u2013 and partly by economic necessity as the world shifts away from fossil fuels. Many Arab economies (especially Gulf Cooperation Council states) remain heavily reliant on oil and gas revenues, which underscores the urgency of economic diversification and green investment<\/p>

Encouragingly, new research by the International Labour Organization (ILO) and partners indicates that if robust climate and industrial policies are pursued, the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region could create up to 10 million new jobs by 2050 while boosting GDP by 7.2%. This optimistic scenario \u2013 unveiled at COP28 in 2023 \u2013 hinges on aggressive development of renewable energy (such as solar and wind), green industries (like hydrogen fuel), and climate-resilient infrastructure. For example, investments in sectors like green hydrogen production, sustainable water desalination, reforestation, and waste management are highlighted as pathways that \u201cleave no one behind\u201d if combined with strong social policies.<\/p>

\u00a0However, the climate transition also carries disruption. Workers in carbon-intensive industries (oil, gas, petrochemicals) and climate-exposed sectors (agriculture, fishing) face uncertainty. The Arab Center for Just Transition emphasizes that strategies for decarbonization must come with plans for alternative employment, retraining, and social protection for affected workers. Notably, the ILO urges that green policies be paired with measures to assist \u201call impacted individuals and not leave anyone behind\u201d, cautioning that a just transition is essential for stability.<\/p>

\u00a0In oil-producing countries, this means engaging both national and migrant workers in dialogues about the future of work as economies diversify. In non-oil economies, it means seizing opportunities in renewables and energy efficiency to drive new job creation. Several Arab countries \u2013 such as Morocco, Egypt and the United Arab Emirates \u2013 have begun investing in large renewable energy projects and net-zero strategies, signaling political will to align climate goals with economic development. The convergence of these efforts underlines the need for labor unions to be at the table to ensure climate action also yields decent work and social justice. Digital Transition: Parallel to the climate challenge, Arab economies are experiencing a digital revolution that is transforming commerce, communication, and workplaces. Over the past decade, internet connectivity in the region has skyrocketed from 28.8% of the population in 2012 to over 70% in 2022, bringing the online population to roughly 327 million people<\/p>

Governments accelerated digital initiatives particularly during the COVID-19 pandemic, modernizing e-government services and encouraging online business models. Yet despite this rapid growth, a significant digital divide persists. About 30% of the Arab population remains offline \u2013 an estimated 142 million people unconnected as of 2021 \u2013 with access gaps especially pronounced between higher-income and lower-income countries, urban and rural areas, and between social groups. For instance, only 56% of women in the Arab region use the Internet compared to 68% of men, reflecting a substantial gender digital divide.<\/p>

Such inequities in digital infrastructure and skills mean that large segments of society risk being left behind in the digital transition. The digital economy\u2019s expansion brings both opportunities and challenges for Arab labor markets. On one hand, technology and connectivity have enabled new forms of employment, including the rise of online freelancing and gig work platforms that many young people are tapping into. Digital entrepreneurship is growing, and there is strong demand for ICT skills. On the other hand, the region has yet to see digitalization translate into broad-based job growth. Analysts note that \u201cdigital development has failed to have the transformative impact\u2026 in many Arab countries\u201d, partly due to limited local digital industries and a lack of supportive policies. \u00a0Where digital jobs are created (for example, ride-sharing drivers, delivery services, or online gig tasks), they often fall in the informal or semi-formal realm without adequate labor protections<\/p>

Indeed, the ILO\u2019s 2024 outlook highlights that while platform work is spreading in Arab States, these workers \u201ctypically do not enjoy conventional job security, benefits or legal safeguards\u201d of formal employment. Furthermore, a mismatch between the skills employers need and those workers can offer \u2013 especially in digital and high-tech fields \u2013 is a persistent problem. Educational curricula and training programs have not kept pace with technological change, leaving many graduates without job-relevant digital skills. If unaddressed, the digital transition could exacerbate inequality, as those with connectivity and advanced skills reap the benefits while others are excluded.<\/p>

\u00a0This is why the Arab Center for Just Transition frames digital inclusion as a core justice issue: ensuring affordable internet access, digital literacy, and worker protections in the tech-driven economy are all part of a just transition agenda. Convergence of Transitions: The climate and digital transitions are often discussed separately, but in practice they are deeply intertwined in their economic and social effects. Both transitions promise modernization and new industries \u2013 from solar farms to smart cities \u2013 and both rely on an empowered workforce. Digital technologies can accelerate climate solutions (such as smart grids, remote sensing for agriculture, or efficient public transport systems), while the shift to a green economy will itself generate demand for tech-savvy labor (e.g. engineers for renewable energy, data analysts for energy efficiency). Moreover, both transitions are unfolding simultaneously, meaning Arab countries face compound pressures to adapt. For example, an oil refinery worker might be impacted by decarbonization policies and also by automation in manufacturing processes. A young graduate might need both green skills and digital skills to thrive in emerging job markets. The convergence of these trends makes it imperative to develop comprehensive strategies that address climate and digital change together, rather than in silos. This is exactly the space the Arab Center for Just Transition seeks to occupy: connecting the dots between environmental sustainability and technological innovation, under the banner of sustainable, decent work. By promoting holistic policies (for instance, advocating that national climate plans incorporate digital upskilling programs, or that digital economy strategies include green job initiatives), the Center and its partners underscore that the future of Arab economies must be both green and fair, tech-driven and inclusive.<\/p>

Labor Market Trends and Social Challenges<\/strong><\/h2>

The Arab region\u2019s labor markets were under strain even before these transitions, and now face heightened challenges. Unemployment remains persistently high, at an average 9.8% in 2024 \u2013 well above the global average and still higher than pre-pandemic levels. Youth unemployment is especially acute (frequently exceeding 20% in many Arab countries), and women\u2019s labor force participation rates are among the lowest in the world. The ILO\u2019s recent Arab States Employment Outlook attributes much of the jobs deficit to structural factors: in Gulf countries, labor markets are segmented between public-sector jobs for nationals and private-sector jobs for migrant workers, while in many non-GCC countries, instability, conflict and weak private sectors hamper job creation.<\/p>

The result is that not enough decent, high-quality jobs are being generated for the fast-growing working-age population. One of the most striking aspects is the size of the informal economy. More than half of all workers in the Arab region are in informal or insecure employment, with no social protection or benefits. In 2023, an estimated 7.1 million workers \u2013 12.6% of total employment \u2013 lived in working poverty, reflecting the large numbers of people engaged in low-paid, unstable jobs that barely lift them above poverty lines<\/p>

. Such workers (often in agriculture, construction, retail, or gig services) typically lack contracts, health insurance, or retirement plans. The informal sector\u2019s exposure to climate and digital transitions is a critical concern: informal workers are usually the first to suffer from economic disruptions or extreme weather events and the least equipped to seize new opportunities. For example, a heat wave or flood can destroy the livelihoods of informal farmers and street vendors who have no safety net. Likewise, digital automation can displace informal manual jobs (like casual clerical work or basic manufacturing) without those workers being noticed in unemployment statistics or offered retraining.<\/p>

The Arab Center for Just Transition, therefore, stresses the importance of bringing informal workers into the fold of just transition policies, ensuring that social protection floors and training programs extend to them. Without deliberate inclusion, the twin transitions could widen the already significant social gaps in the region. Another major challenge is the skills mismatch in the labor market. Educational systems in many Arab countries have not adequately prepared graduates for the changing world of work. The ILO notes \u201cinadequate education and skills development systems have resulted in a mismatch between the skills employers need and those workers can offer\u201d, contributing to both unemployment and reliance on imported skilled labor in some cases.<\/p>

This gap is especially problematic in fields related to the green and digital economies. A lack of specialists in renewable energy technology, cybersecurity, data science, or climate-smart agriculture can become a bottleneck as countries attempt to scale up these sectors. Moreover, systems for anticipating future skill needs are underdeveloped \u2013 most Arab countries lack comprehensive labor market data and forecasting capacity to plan for skills training, and non-GCC states face financial constraints in this area.<\/p>

\u00a0The result is that training programs often trail behind industry needs. It is also important to recognize regional disparities within the Arab world. High-income Gulf states like the UAE, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia have more fiscal resources to invest in both green projects (e.g. large solar parks) and digital infrastructure (e.g. 5G networks), and they boast internet penetration rates near or above 90%. In contrast, low-income and conflict-affected countries (such as Yemen, Sudan, or Somalia) have minimal infrastructure, with internet usage sometimes below 30-40%, and are often coping with humanitarian crises that overshadow long-term transition planning. Middle-income nations like Egypt, Jordan, Morocco, and Tunisia fall somewhere in between \u2013 they have significant youth unemployment and informality, but also active civil societies and unions engaged in reform efforts. The Arab Center for Just Transition works through ATUC\u2019s broad network (covering North Africa, the Levant, and Gulf unions) to tailor its approach to these varied contexts. For instance, in relatively stable countries it may focus on policy advocacy for green job creation, whereas in crisis-hit areas it may emphasize resilience and protecting basic worker rights amid upheaval. Lastly, the social justice dimensions of these transitions cannot be separated from questions of equity and inclusion. Women, youth, and migrant workers represent key vulnerable groups. Women in the Arab region not only have lower employment rates but also face digital barriers (as shown by the stark gender gap in internet access).<\/p>

\u00a0Without targeted measures \u2013 from encouraging girls in STEM education to ensuring women farmers have access to climate-smart tools \u2013 the transitions risk perpetuating gender inequality. Youth, while adaptive to technology, need pathways from education into emerging green and tech jobs; otherwise, their frustration will grow in the face of jobless growth. Migrant workers, who form a large portion of the labor force in GCC countries, must also be included in just transition plans (e.g. if oil facilities close or construction slows, migrant laborers should receive support and not simply be sent home without compensation). It is telling that trade unions from Asia to the Arab region have begun forging alliances to protect migrant worker rights in the context of climate change and just transition policies.<\/p>

\u00a0Social dialogue that includes representatives of these groups is vital to identify their needs. In summary, the Arab region\u2019s labor landscape is marked by high unemployment, informality, skill gaps and inequality \u2013 all of which form the backdrop against which climate and digital transitions will play out. The urgency is clear: without proactive policies, these transitions could exacerbate existing challenges; with a people-centered approach, they could become engines of improved livelihoods and social justice.<\/p>

Toward a Rights-Based and Inclusive Transition: Key Action Areas<\/strong><\/h2>

Addressing the above challenges requires deliberate policy choices and concerted action. A just transition framework in the Arab region revolves around several key pillars that place workers and communities at the center of climate and digital strategies. The following action areas have been identified by trade unions, the ILO, and UN agencies as crucial for steering transitions that are socially inclusive and equitable:<\/p>